Ladies and gentlemen,
Personal mobility is changing. Technology is advancing rapidly, allowing us to achieve higher levels of safety, comfort, economy, and eco-friendliness than we could have imagined even a few short years ago.
Here in Japan, these changes are evident everywhere, and nowhere more so than here at the Tokyo Motor Show. The show gives us a glimpse into the future – a future in which three trends above all continue to dominate: electrification, automation, and connectivity. At Bosch, and especially in Japan, we are making good progress in all these domains. The announcement I will be making about automated driving in a few minutes underlines this fact.
Mobility Solutions continuing on growth path
But first, let me briefly outline our business situation. Our mobility solutions business is continuing its path of robust growth. We expect to see nominal growth of approximately ten percent in 2015, or five percent after adjusting exchange-rate effects. In other words, we are growing faster than global vehicle production.
Regionally, Asia Pacific continues to be a key driver of our business. Overall, and despite current developments in China, we forecast a double-digit year-on-year growth in local currencies in 2015. Our success in this region is largely build on our strong relationships with Japanese automakers. An international footprint is crucial for success – and this is exactly where Bosch excels. We are close to our customers in the automotive industry, wherever they are in the world. In Japan, we currently produce mobility solutions at six locations. Globally, our automotive manufacturing network currently comprises 106 locations, and this number is constantly increasing.
Thanks to our ever-expanding global presence, our sales to Japanese automakers grew by roughly 13 percent in 2014. Worldwide, Japanese OEMs account for approximately 30 percent of the vehicle market, and 90 percent of the market in the emerging ASEAN countries. Japanese OEMs also are strong players in the two-wheeler market, which is expected to grow one third more than today by 2021.
A supplier of integrated mobility solutions
As the new name of our business sector suggests, we're no longer just supplying our customers with components: in recent years, Bosch has evolved into a provider of complete mobility solutions for the automotive industry and beyond. Few other companies have comparable expertise across all domains of current and future mobility – whether in electrification, automation or connectivity. I would like to outline some of our activities in these areas, and give you some context for the innovations you can experience here at our booth.
Conventional engines still have a bright future
Downsizing, hybrids, electric vehicles – in the future anyone taking a look under the hood is likely to find much more than a conventional combustion engine. But while a lot is changing, the internal-combustion engine will still continue to play a major role over the next decade. In five years' time, well over 98 percent of new vehicles will still be powered at least partially by fossil fuels.
In view of this, a particular focus of ours is on continuing to refine technology for clean and fuel-efficient combustion engines. With our full spectrum of solutions including optimized port-fuel injection, sophisticated direct injection, turbocharging, as well as transmission control and systems applications, we can help automakers worldwide achieve the ever-stricter fuel-efficiency targets for passenger cars. Even on the basis of 2015 best-in-class powertrains, we see the potential for up to a further 15-percent savings in fuel economy for gasoline-powered cars.
Electrification for increased efficiency
Nonetheless, in our quest to meet the increasingly strict emission targets and fuel-efficiency standards to come, we believe that electrification is the way forward. Bosch expects that by 2025, more than 15 percent of all new vehicles built worldwide will have at least a hybrid powertrain.
Bosch offers a wide range of components and systems for e-mobility. We have solutions for everything from mild and plug-in hybrids, to fully-electric powertrains, to e-bikes and e-scooters. We also have cost-effective solutions to make even smaller vehicles more efficient, such as our 48-volt boost recuperation system – which is particularly relevant for Japan. Because this hybrid technology pays off very fast and is especially interesting for the small vehicles segment. Overall, we have completed around 30 projects related to powertrain electrification so far. And our expertise is not limited only to components: for instance, we also provide the software platforms for vehicle-charging infrastructures.
And being here in Japan today, let me also outline our activities in fuel-cell technology. For us, this technology is also part of our electrification strategy. Via our subsidiary Bosch Engineering, Bosch is already now offering components as well as engineering services for fuel-cell vehicles. In the short term, however, we see a higher chance for fuel cells for stationary operation as well as for off-highway vehicles.
Of course, to succeed in powertrain electrification, we will need further advances in battery technology. Here, we see the potential for a great leap forward. Bosch has acquired the U.S. technology company Seeo, whose engineers have developed a solid-state battery cell with a lithium anode. Up to now, the industry target has been to double batteries' energy density and cut their cost in half by the end of this decade. Thanks to this solid-state technology, which complements the work of our Lithium Energy and Power joint venture with GS Yuasa and Mitsubishi Corporation, we believe even greater gains in energy density can be achieved. Bosch is using its knowledge and considerable financial resources to achieve a breakthrough for electromobility.
Automation for greater road safety
Bosch's motivation for developing automated driving is and remains safety. The UN estimates that each year some 1.3 million people worldwide are killed in road accidents – still around 4,000 in Japan. In 90 percent of cases, the accident can be attributed to driver error. If we can support the driver in complex or monotonous situations, we can prevent accidents and save lives. By now, accidents with casualties have already decreased by 30 percent due to safety features such as ESC launched by Bosch in 1995. By increasing automation, we could cut accident rates by a further 37 percent in Germany alone. This vision of an accident-free future is what motivates our 2,000 Bosch driver assistance developers worldwide.
In this regard, Bosch has been testing vehicles fitted with automated driving technologies on public roads in Germany and the United States since 2013. In addition, we have now started testing on Japanese public roads as well. This will make Japan the third key location for Bosch in terms of its efforts to further develop automated driving. Due to the difference of road condition and traffic situation, we need appropriate adjustment and customization here in Japan. We understand Japanese government is aiming 2020 Olympics for first implementation of Automated Driving vehicles in the market. By 2020, we expect that vehicles using Bosch technology will be able to drive autonomously on freeways.
Connectivity is the key
The key to both automated and electrified driving is connectivity. Connected vehicles are safer, more efficient, and make driving more relaxed. To connect the car to the internet, Bosch pursues two main approaches. First of all, it makes use of the driver's smartphone: Bosch's mySPIN integrated solution allows Android and iOS devices to link up to the vehicle's infotainment system. A wide range of apps can then be conveniently operated from the vehicle's central display. Second, Bosch offers the connectivity control unit as a command center within the vehicle. The CCU communicates via a cellular module equipped with its own SIM card and can determine the vehicle's position using GPS, if desired. Only a connected car will be able to see ahead – further than any sensor, and with much more up-to-date information than any map. It will even be able to see around bends. Traffic jams, accidents, and construction sites – with dynamic information such as this, we can enhance the electronic horizon. This will make automated driving even safer, and hybrid vehicles will always know when it's time to convert braking energy into electricity, thus extending their range. It will also know when it needs to be serviced, thinking ahead far better than a warning lamp indicating possible faults.
Connectivity is also enabling a wide range of new services aimed at customers like leasing companies, operators of the traffic infrastructure, as well as individual drivers. Recent examples are solutions such as the new Bosch cloud-based wrong-way driver warning. This pure software function can detect wrong-way driving immediately and alerts oncoming drivers via the cloud much faster. Another is a parking-space search engine. Our micromechanical sensors are installed in the pavement and transmit information about parking occupancy in real time. The importance of software will continue to grow – and with it, our need for qualified software specialists.
Emphasis on local engineering
In all our activities, we put a great emphasis on engineering locally. I mentioned our global manufacturing network earlier, but we're also continuously expanding our global development network. With the high competence of our engineers, Japan plays an important role in this.
Globally, more than 40,000 people are working in R&D to develop our mobility solutions and one-third of these associates are software engineers. More than 18,000 engineers are located in Asia Pacific – and this number is set to rise further. There's a good reason why we're concentrating our development strength here: according to our forecasts, by 2016, half of all global vehicle sales will be in this region.
In Japan, we have more than 1,300 engineers working at 11 research and development sites. Our Yokohama location is the largest R&D center for active safety systems outside Germany and it specializes in motorcycle safety. In fact, we've made Japan our lead country for motorcycle systems development.
Earlier this year, Bosch bundled all its two-wheeler expertise and established a new business unit headquartered in Yokohama. Called Two-Wheeler and Powersports, this unit's objective is to address individual requirements of motorcycle OEMs more effectively. It focuses completely on innovative two-wheeler solutions in order to make two-wheelers safer, more efficient, and more comfortable – without reducing riding pleasure.
Our solutions cover the entire two-wheeler spectrum: from those in Asia's mass-market price segment to premium machines with over 1,000cc displacement. Bosch is the market leader for motorcycle safety systems, and the new business unit offers solutions such as ABS and MSC motorcycle stability control, a type of ESC for motorcycles.
Innovative brand communication initiative in Japan
Before I wrap up, I would like to say a few words about an unusual project we have launched here in Japan. In September, we opened up a Bosch-branded café, called "café 1886 at Bosch," at our headquarters in Shibuya. Named after the year Bosch was established, this unique initiative combines a comfortable eating area with an adjacent showroom presenting our past, present, and future innovations. In the café, we sell Bosch brand coffee, which remains fresh thanks to a unique valve from Bosch's Packaging Technology division. Please enjoy the sample included in your press kit. We are looking forward to welcoming you at "café 1886 at Bosch" soon.
Ladies and gentlemen, mobility is in transition. Electrification is making cars more efficient and economical, automation is bringing us greater safety and convenience behind the wheel, and connectivity is transforming many aspects of the driving experience. Our strategic imperative at Bosch is to pursue innovations that first and foremost benefit people – this is what we call technology "Invented for life." As one of the leading suppliers Bosch is not only helping to shape the future of mobility – we are helping to enhance quality of life for people in Japan and around the world.
Press Release | The 44th Tokyo Motor Show 2015